Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7ea309e2c4eda1589d60d0a7b6dfddb6cb4b47eccc2ae7d2b9515a35a5c5b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 354.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 38c | 296.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 263.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 241.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 230.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 210.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 202.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 201.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 183.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 13c | 163.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 160.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 157.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 139.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 13c | 139.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 126.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 22c | 119.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 116.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 44c | 107.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 54c | 106.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 12c | 96.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 27c | 82.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 78.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 77.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 67c | 75.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 58.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 25c | 58.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 20c | 54.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…6435backed Yes | 28c | 53.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 52.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 67c | 50.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 35c | 44.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 77c | 43.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 61c | 42.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 25c | 41.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 33c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 66c | 35.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 63c | 30.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 79c | 24.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 68c | 23.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 79c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 64c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 77c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 78c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 64c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 76c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 73c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 61°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.