La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6771091423e9ba1694bf869677b994af89be3eefea18ddc06d2b3db665a704b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 68c | 3,100$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 32c | 1,748$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.26 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 66c | 568$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 505.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 34c | 443.29$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 32c | 318$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 264.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 69c | 99.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 67c | 67.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked No | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 32c | 32.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw?Yes won
- Will UD Las Palmas win on 2025-12-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.