Lol · resolved market
LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6933052afe6cf7c5c99c6585483f9e8f56bb5c6440e654a5ff178b5130c51f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lodisof Forsaken, Lodis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Lodis | 39c | 5,584$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410.73 | 512 | 44.3%227 W · 285 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked Forsaken | 37c | 5,068$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.91 | 623 | 45.7%285 W · 338 L | +39.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…254fbacked Lodis | 18c | 4,250$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500.66 | 554 | 55.2%306 W · 248 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Lodis | 52c | 2,005$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.3 | 1,501 | 48.4%727 W · 774 L | +47.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lodis | 61c | 1,547$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.35 | 2,839 | 41.4%1,175 W · 1,664 L | -14.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Forsaken | 78c | 1,182$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.67 | 1,066 | 54.8%584 W · 482 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Forsaken | 50c | 1,044$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.2 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…02e0backed Forsaken | 42c | 248.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 812 | 50.6%411 W · 401 L | +47.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Lodis | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked Forsaken | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed Lodis | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 743 | 44%327 W · 416 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lodis | 19c | 113.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Forsaken | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5280…4d8ebacked Lodis | 40c | 92.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Lodis | 25c | 92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Forsaken | 75c | 89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 1,549 | 43.8%679 W · 870 L | -27.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Forsaken | 20c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,491 | 43.5%649 W · 842 L | -32.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Lodis | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 1,668 | 46.8%781 W · 887 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Lodis | 21c | 77.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Lodis | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 398 | 32.7%130 W · 268 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Forsaken | 21c | 54.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,915 | 38.5%1,122 W · 1,793 L | -120.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lodis | 62c | 36.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,613 | 17.5%283 W · 1,330 L | -246.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Lodis | 67c | 35.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,079 | 26%281 W · 798 L | -99.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Lodis | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,578 | 48.5%765 W · 813 L | +18.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Lodis | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,730 | 29.5%510 W · 1,220 L | -123.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lodis | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3,182 | 33.9%1,079 W · 2,103 L | -151.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…ebfdbacked Lodis | 67c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Forsaken | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs Lodis (+1.5)Lodis won
- LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular SeasonForsaken won
- LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis - Game 2 WinnerForsaken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.