Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa696a258a85683688009b6bd5119148c24660f17ec62167acedc6c90b6cf5261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,402$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…3b96backed No | 5c | 464.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 407.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 320.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 263.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 80c | 188.55$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 171.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 166$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 154.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 131.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 108.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 98.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 24c | 96.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 85.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 75.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 51c | 69.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 64.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 24c | 59.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 76c | 58.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 49.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 28c | 46.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 46.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 43c | 45.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 62c | 30.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 29.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 38c | 26.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked No | 56c | 19.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.