Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39403e8248d44bc687704f8be3bd09a85fded707678d5f48962cebcf646a986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,030$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 415.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 374.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 348.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 290.27$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 58c | 216.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 202.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 200.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 186.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 169.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 55c | 158.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 153.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 125.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 81.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 57.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 54.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 44.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 44.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 60c | 43.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 39.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 47c | 35.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 57c | 33.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 30.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 34c | 29.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked No | 60c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 76c | 27.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 38c | 27.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 39c | 26.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 25.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 58c | 24.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 70c | 23.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 78c | 20.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e7…6065backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 68c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 59c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 65c | 17.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.