Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jessica Pegula vs Victoria Azarenka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c38523baf7f4e1b7f0fd0d60e84ee9486786b57e856a595b091202d66f90e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Azarenka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdb5…ca57backed Pegula | 78c | 5,302$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Azarenka | 23c | 4,006$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Azarenka | 22c | 3,095$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.95 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Azarenka | 7c | 1,383$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Azarenka | 6c | 1,189$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Azarenka | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Azarenka | 22c | 732.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.09 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pegula | 77c | 657$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Azarenka | 16c | 627.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Azarenka | 17c | 602.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Azarenka | 7c | 470$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Azarenka | 16c | 457$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Azarenka | 22c | 451.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Azarenka | 8c | 437.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Azarenka | 10c | 418.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pegula | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Azarenka | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Pegula | 78c | 249.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Azarenka | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Azarenka | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…d348backed Pegula | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Azarenka | 22c | 113.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Azarenka | 16c | 106.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Azarenka | 16c | 99.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pegula | 77c | 76.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Pegula | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Pegula | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Pegula | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.