La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c44a7b934e1f395383a253c5b8ee4c4c93a2c9d47d258c3447394441a913e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 1,401$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.33 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…390ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 997.77$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 37c | 818.94$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.04 | 1,421 | 45.7%649 W · 772 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 28c | 628.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.57 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 525.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40ec…f6e4backed No | 29c | 467.27$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 38c | 261.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 34c | 147.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 66c | 141.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 72c | 119.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 66c | 109.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 90.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 65c | 60.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 849 | 39.7%337 W · 512 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…c496backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 74c | 28.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 492 | 52.6%259 W · 233 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1226backed Yes | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-01?this page
- Will CD Mirandés vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.