South American Leagues · resolved market
Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d70c98c7d15e17f925a813262f8b8749d0a9b205464162c65df784aab29dc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,124$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 914.51$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Under | 50c | 368$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 64c | 128.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 54c | 123$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 53c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 71c | 86.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 49.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 43c | 40.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…edbabacked Over | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 57c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 57c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5this page
- Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.