South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6de4a2562be324e3d0f0516315d1b51df1a355b2f502dfe11174efd3a53f0f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 51c | 2,942$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,647$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.72 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 803.39$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.29 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 545.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.82 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 61c | 500$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.83 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 354.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 52c | 266.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 46c | 217.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 50c | 211.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 195.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 19c | 182.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 44c | 174.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 52c | 138.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 56c | 113.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…0389backed Over | 60c | 44.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f5…cbb2backed Under | 41c | 42.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…f7e0backed Under | 41c | 40.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 39.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…4b16backed Over | 60c | 38.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 60c | 38.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 60c | 29.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…8be1backed Over | 60c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 51c | 21.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.