Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e46c7376e11efb6b4c819634e01819e5e5dd9268574fa43523452f9efee3a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 629.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 63c | 287.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 256.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…edbabacked Over | 80c | 20.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.