Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8a0662e404d5decb2507e8fa02eda65ee1891deab37e023984ee359e44fd4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 1,177$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.4 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 39c | 674$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.08 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 613.6$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.27 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 54c | 463.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 17c | 355.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 263.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 71c | 211.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 38c | 158.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 78c | 131$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 77c | 109$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 100.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 81.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Over | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Over | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 79c | 39.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Under | 80c | 14.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.