Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jordan Thompson vs Brandon Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e56946a0b35b8fed43f3193a1f48e2499329c9747cc8afa702969fd6b9b08f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Thompson, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thompson | 51c | 4,737$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.05 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Nakashima | 46c | 4,360$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Thompson | 61c | 2,845$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.59 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thompson | 51c | 2,469$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.81 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Nakashima | 40c | 2,250$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thompson | 57c | 1,705$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.3 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Nakashima | 32c | 809.78$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Nakashima | 46c | 430.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nakashima | 63c | 425$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Nakashima | 48c | 390.94$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Nakashima | 39c | 350$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Nakashima | 49c | 304.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Nakashima | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Nakashima | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thompson | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nakashima | 68c | 170$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Thompson | 27c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Nakashima | 67c | 156.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Nakashima | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Thompson | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Nakashima | 47c | 135.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Thompson | 38c | 124.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Nakashima | 63c | 117.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Nakashima | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Thompson | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thompson | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 66c | 38.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 66c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.