Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70e1177e6db71d8ceadfa096dbad7dcaac427a2ba64ca449cf68eb204f94402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 6,494$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 34c | 5,530$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 66c | 2,101$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 34c | 1,555$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.78 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 30c | 1,048$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 66c | 635.6$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 32c | 309.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 301.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 35c | 293$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 34c | 149.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 34c | 117.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 44c | 114.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 56c | 107.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 67c | 90.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 67c | 84.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 23c | 78.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…2784backed Over | 35c | 54.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Under | 66c | 36.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Under | 66c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Under | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 66c | 29.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 66c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 67c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.