Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70f4e30ff01a512b8f0269cb9302c961490dae787754c0d7ec0878c24d5f98e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 0c | 6,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 63c | 222.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 51c | 191.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 173.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 55c | 145.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 129.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…cee3backed No | 31c | 120.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 48c | 72.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 57c | 52.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 39c | 51.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 50.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 42.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 41.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed Yes | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 38c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…7819backed Yes | 45c | 25.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 48c | 21.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 67c | 20.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.