Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4939937f4a753d4745ee7f381b8e23ee0709a034bd56d4c6df855a8b61d6b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,019 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,545$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 70c | 1,198$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 28c | 1,194$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 334.02$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 169.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 119.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 19c | 91.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 18c | 71.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 65.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 64.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 62.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 69c | 34.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 73c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…070fbacked No | 78c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.