Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Lilli Tagger vs Lanlana Tararudee
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa74edbf23cb786be41a1e7d53dad524ad681afc6df9df86a1a8afa333f63671d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tararudeeof Tagger, Tararudee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf946…d542backed Tagger | 45c | 1,984$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Tagger | 39c | 1,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.68 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tararudee | 55c | 565.94$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.65 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Tararudee | 66c | 414.04$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Tararudee | 58c | 342.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Tararudee | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Tagger | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tararudee | 77c | 220.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Tagger | 21c | 216.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tagger | 13c | 182.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tararudee | 62c | 144$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tagger | 41c | 133.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Tagger | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 268 | 37.3%100 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Tagger | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Tagger | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tararudee | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Tagger | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…6906backed Tagger | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tagger | 45c | 41.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tararudee | 57c | 38.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…e9f4backed Tararudee | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Tararudee | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Tararudee | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Tararudee | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Tararudee | 55c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.