Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Daria Snigur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7680567da48c9b140ac8ed69e7da637cde945bd07966eb6a2c1e241102093e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sasnovichof Sasnovich, Snigur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Sasnovich | 61c | 6,000$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.5 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Snigur | 39c | 5,583$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Snigur | 0c | 4,069$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Sasnovich | 75c | 4,021$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.7 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Snigur | 34c | 1,400$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Snigur | 14c | 1,308$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Snigur | 34c | 1,066$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.23 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Snigur | 7c | 700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Snigur | 35c | 699$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Snigur | 35c | 630$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.42 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sasnovich | 50c | 511.11$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.27 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Snigur | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Snigur | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Snigur | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Snigur | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Snigur | 23c | 182.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed Snigur | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9f95backed Sasnovich | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…c468backed Snigur | 40c | 99.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Sasnovich | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Sasnovich | 61c | 65.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Snigur | 36c | 53.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Snigur | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…0becbacked Snigur | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Snigur | 37c | 40.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Sasnovich | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Sasnovich | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Sasnovich | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Sasnovich | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Sasnovich | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.