Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Eva Lys vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa775286f939636645695b407ab65c34307b0fcc5207d471aa3c732954b48c8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Lys, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Lys | 26c | 15,198$3,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.11 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fernandez | 73c | 9,006$6,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fernandez | 60c | 919.91$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.96 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lys | 38c | 817$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.15 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Fernandez | 62c | 807.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.44 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Lys | 27c | 698.1$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lys | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Lys | 40c | 500.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…25f6backed Fernandez | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…1ce7backed Lys | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Fernandez | 63c | 478$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 72c | 453$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Lys | 40c | 218.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lys | 33c | 153.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Fernandez | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Lys | 35c | 125.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3c95backed Lys | 42c | 118.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Fernandez | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Lys | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Fernandez | 70c | 86.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Lys | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Fernandez | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 229 | 65.9%151 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Fernandez | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lys | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fernandez | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 58c | 49.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…a6bfbacked Fernandez | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Fernandez | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fernandez | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.