Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ae02c0c4202600f68ec5a7edcc72792165a261a861653e59e6283c6c38809c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4297…3290backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 42c | 1,094$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…4249backed No | 50c | 1,084$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…8839backed No | 50c | 1,082$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…b429backed Yes | 50c | 1,011$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 53c | 521.19$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 68c | 441.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 265.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked No | 51c | 209.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 49c | 71.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 52c | 66.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 55c | 56.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…61b7backed No | 50c | 45.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…60cbbacked Yes | 70c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5585backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 49c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…e42fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…102ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.