Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9559823f64496e547fa9f7aa170e4813e19b80c5c3cf2704597e68ef51ef21b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 32c | 3,010$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.79 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 34c | 2,694$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.74 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 58c | 1,999$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 1,052$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 935.16$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 66c | 750$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 706.23$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 59c | 505.34$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.19 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 328.81$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 75c | 313.33$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 69c | 300.71$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…3b30backed Over | 78c | 286.67$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 31c | 272.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 71c | 240.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 223.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Over | 70c | 197.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 122.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c7…8b51backed Over | 69c | 97.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…2357backed Over | 69c | 94.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked Over | 69c | 75.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Over | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 69c | 70.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 62c | 64.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 67c | 64.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 52.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…84a9backed Over | 68c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…3389backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 57c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Under | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 69c | 22.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.