TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under59c169,831$99,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,993.381947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over41c80,258$32,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,352.369455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over41c28,198$11,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,636.531,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over41c22,272$9,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,140.431566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c12,426$7,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,362.23,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over41c9,865$4,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,818.4578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over42c9,302$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,355.4244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under59c6,403$3,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,778.556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Over41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9501735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over42c4,625$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.231,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under1c2,991$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.913438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Over42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over41c1,261$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.056459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over28c1,162$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.477328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5802454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over43c939.05$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.262263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b6e…d361backed Over50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over41c800$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4728764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over42c597.6$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.612755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under59c566.63$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.12875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over43c450$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.55052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over41c425.85$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5351136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over41c420$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over41c420$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.815454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over41c420$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.88864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23624258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under57c380.61$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9533340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over41c330$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.713957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over41c330$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.714355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17711860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17712162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under57c299.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9911036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over41c257.45$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.930054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over45c250$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.458248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.54141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Under50c231.04$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.332254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under58c221.72$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.610945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11812858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.997753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under57c199.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5415453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over41c190$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.19659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over41c180$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over41c180$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over41c180$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.225659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.311458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.36556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.313859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.311259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.312458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.36460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.312358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over42c164.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Over39c161.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.571450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over25c160$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over38c155$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.851776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.510360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.56959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over43c146.05$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.032,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under59c126.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5418746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.86460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.812259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.88261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.86162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.812657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.813256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.86259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.813254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.89159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Under60c117.57$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.661735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Under62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Over43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.022450%12 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0211943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Over42c91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Under58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over42c83.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5737344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Over41c82.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.656851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.25459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under58c76.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.481,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Over40c74.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.562065%13 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Over41c72.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.255356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over42c71.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.396251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over41c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.311661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under57c63.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3838151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.45558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.45459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.411360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.45461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.46464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.45757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.411759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.46657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.