Tennis · resolved market
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7eb736decd89b3e39319df36c0b3bf3027ae772c3770b1ed2afc35dd0b1162f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ayumi Miyamotoof Ayumi Miyamoto, Sae Noguchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sae Noguchi | 57c | 1,626$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.78 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Sae Noguchi | 33c | 1,250$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.62 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ayumi Miyamoto | 78c | 603.53$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 49c | 600.27$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.82 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…e9dcbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 60c | 499.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.95 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Sae Noguchi | 47c | 457.45$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sae Noguchi | 62c | 375.89$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.03 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 55c | 321.08$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 59c | 312.18$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 312 | 37.8%118 W · 194 L | -24.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Sae Noguchi | 37c | 278$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…e4b0backed Sae Noguchi | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 60c | 188.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Sae Noguchi | 67c | 136.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729b…1b33backed Sae Noguchi | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ayumi Miyamoto | 33c | 92.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 64c | 78.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 42c | 77.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…1ed3backed Ayumi Miyamoto | 63c | 73.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Sae Noguchi | 17c | 67.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ayumi Miyamoto | 59c | 57.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Sae Noguchi | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Sae Noguchi | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Sae Noguchi | 38c | 45.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Sae Noguchi | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…7ef2backed Sae Noguchi | 59c | 42.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…582abacked Ayumi Miyamoto | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…90dbbacked Sae Noguchi | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed Sae Noguchi | 64c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Ayumi Miyamoto | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.