CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Gamebox Festival Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f6c37646100c8abfa19cc3dbae9e965fb8a61901e92ad9b2e035a0fa1f8473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, MASONIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa16b…b541backed STATE | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MASONIC | 46c | 384.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.07 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…ae6bbacked MASONIC | 54c | 365.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…9407backed STATE | 56c | 338.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…cbbdbacked MASONIC | 60c | 320.46$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 53c | 301.52$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked MASONIC | 35c | 272.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed MASONIC | 43c | 222.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…cae7backed MASONIC | 46c | 211.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked STATE | 59c | 118.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed STATE | 68c | 117.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed STATE | 55c | 109.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed MASONIC | 45c | 103.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked STATE | 37c | 100.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed STATE | 61c | 71.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…5ea3backed STATE | 54c | 63.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MASONIC | 38c | 63.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed STATE | 37c | 53.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked STATE | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…d68fbacked STATE | 62c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…1678backed STATE | 60c | 24.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed STATE | 62c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MASONIC | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Gamebox Festival Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.