Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa860512f0a18fec578ad65bac59f235baac0b86cc6027e89c4be0b7829328385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 439.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 10c | 219.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 195.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 153.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 144.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 95.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 86.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 71c | 79.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 78.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 70.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 65.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 59.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 70c | 59.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 58.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 37c | 52.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 76c | 49.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 52c | 48.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 45c | 48.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 59c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 53c | 38.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 35.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 34.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 45c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 47c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 29.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed No | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…7a4cbacked No | 58c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 67c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 57c | 21.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 21.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…f9aabacked Yes | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 80c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 64c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…19f8backed Yes | 76c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 14.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.