Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aacdf337f4832677e2f844e5cd69d53a7f64a262ba67d5c819b657ab4b7b8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 460.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 438.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 350$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 347.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 319.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 6c | 309.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 297.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 184.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 126.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 110.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 25c | 109.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…bfe9backed Yes | 19c | 85.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…30eebacked Yes | 24c | 76.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 58.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 53.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 49c | 49.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 48.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 70c | 45.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 80c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 24c | 41.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 40.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 38.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 50c | 37.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 37.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 42c | 29.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 46c | 26.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 25.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 60c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 42c | 24.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 23.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 60c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 75c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…4d57backed No | 78c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.