Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8766dd57e9c3b896ec80b1cc4d5f36e68779be068184bf2e2cf32aaac8f2c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado State Ramsof UNLV Runnin' Rebels, Colorado State Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 55c | 2,247$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado State Rams | 44c | 763.12$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Colorado State Rams | 45c | 520.78$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Colorado State Rams | 45c | 413$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.15 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado State Rams | 47c | 367$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Colorado State Rams | 53c | 200.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Colorado State Rams | 45c | 173.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 18c | 81.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Colorado State Rams | 46c | 76.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Colorado State Rams | 48c | 73.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Colorado State Rams | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 50c | 59.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Colorado State Rams | 47c | 53.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Colorado State Rams | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Colorado State Rams | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Colorado State Rams | 48c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-1.5)this page
- Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' RebelsColorado State Rams won
- Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels: O/U 146.5Over won
- Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels: O/U 147.5Over won
- Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels: O/U 148.5Over won
- Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-2.5)Colorado State Rams won
- Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-3.5)Colorado State Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.