College Football · resolved market
Spread: Boise State (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa890da55d23edef57881cae2f7a025a06061fee217bdc070efd34d69e16f6c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nevada Wolf Packof Boise State, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Boise State | 49c | 7,924$3,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,906.05 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 5,849$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.83 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Boise State | 49c | 4,920$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.73 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 3,180$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.45 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 705$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1967backed Boise State | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boise State | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 199.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 49c | 194$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Boise State | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Boise State | 49c | 60.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Boise State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 49c | 34.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Boise State | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…56bfbacked Boise State | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State (-21.5)this page
- Boise State vs. Nevada Wolf PackBoise State won
- Boise State vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 51.5Under won
- O/U 50.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.