Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8acc7b7e4b13401b4944c50cc0f8e6d5b76426b9bc9db767a8f096a885b18e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,480 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff46…1c16backed Yes | 1c | 1,836$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,002$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 57c | 639.02$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.62 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 577.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 27c | 424.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.2 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 368.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 30c | 273.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 66c | 271.5$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 16c | 219.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 215.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 31c | 212.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 173.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 168.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 167.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 158.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 150.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 145.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 49c | 113.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 17c | 108.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes | 26c | 98.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 88.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 83.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…b587backed Yes | 22c | 73.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 80c | 67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 16c | 65.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 61.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 58.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 50c | 56.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 29c | 56.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 23c | 54.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 31c | 41.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed No | 74c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 65c | 26.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.