Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Taipei Men: Noritaka Koizumi vs Ryota Tanuma
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c0db487af5c05467150f328a2aca02694aff49e8614a129f45b61e9978211c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noritaka Koizumiof Noritaka Koizumi, Ryota Tanuma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Noritaka Koizumi | 57c | 6,712$3,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.62 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ryota Tanuma | 43c | 5,945$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.49 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Noritaka Koizumi | 57c | 1,048$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.84 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ryota Tanuma | 44c | 953.74$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.01 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Ryota Tanuma | 43c | 610.26$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ryota Tanuma | 41c | 495.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Noritaka Koizumi | 64c | 467.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Ryota Tanuma | 41c | 343.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Noritaka Koizumi | 57c | 321$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ryota Tanuma | 42c | 225.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Ryota Tanuma | 43c | 218.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Noritaka Koizumi | 58c | 171.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Ryota Tanuma | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Noritaka Koizumi | 56c | 126.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Ryota Tanuma | 48c | 96.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Ryota Tanuma | 78c | 89.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…dd02backed Noritaka Koizumi | 30c | 80.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Noritaka Koizumi | 56c | 80.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Noritaka Koizumi | 57c | 69.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Ryota Tanuma | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Noritaka Koizumi | 57c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Ryota Tanuma | 71c | 33.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Noritaka Koizumi | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Ryota Tanuma | 71c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M25 Taipei Men: Noritaka Koizumi vs Ryota Tanumathis page
- ITF M25 Taipei Men, Qualifying: Completed Match: Noritaka Koizumi vs Ryota TanumaYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.