Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa939b704e3079a23a370798bb6f3791e18d1aefdee977e94d6a104ff56e59ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Sonego, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Sonego | 21c | 11,298$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.5 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Zverev | 79c | 10,328$8,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.89 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sonego | 21c | 1,530$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.04 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Zverev | 79c | 1,500$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.54 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Sonego | 15c | 460.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sonego | 20c | 203.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Zverev | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zverev | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Zverev | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Sonego | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sonego | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Zverev | 79c | 93.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sonego | 17c | 63.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Zverev | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Zverev | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Zverev | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Zverev | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.