Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa969c546942f25d6881fd156bdf2bae31093b4356bfe86e26fd321b8d1f8a4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 5c | 6,401$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.32 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,939$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 6c | 1,660$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,522$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 1,360$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 6c | 819.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Yes | 3c | 799.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 788.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 3c | 648.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 643.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 16c | 642.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 4c | 602.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 7c | 576.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 4c | 487$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 4c | 443.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 6c | 409.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…6b9fbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed Yes | 10c | 282.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 7c | 269.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 5c | 202.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…5263backed Yes | 5c | 201.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…a56ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.