Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d550d7702642a75d477639709723b01152867a6bfe6bcb44be035229ceb12f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 2,328$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.79 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,653$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.62 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 27c | 1,481$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 78c | 1,279$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 34c | 1,008$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.05 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 31c | 774.19$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 738.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 68c | 714.71$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 9c | 520.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 27c | 363.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.87 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed Yes | 62c | 264.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 254$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 229.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 20c | 210.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 14c | 176.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 30c | 150.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 27c | 149.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 10c | 149.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 74c | 141.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Yes | 28c | 140.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d68…fe74backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 52c | 112.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…4aebbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…8c81backed Yes | 78c | 88.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 69c | 84.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 43c | 84.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Yes | 59c | 78.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Yes | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 62.4%83 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Yes | 54c | 74.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 65.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…043dbacked Yes | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b7…559abacked Yes | 43c | 49.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…4132backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed No | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed No | 54c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…7ff1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.