Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9789f910d74ea01802c11e9c65c7d624339fdb3b2034ee8ad56ab06b2c0fea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tennessee Volunteersof Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Volunteers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tennessee Volunteers | 48c | 1,806$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.61 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 939.13$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 55c | 878.18$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 496.54$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tennessee Volunteers | 53c | 369.43$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.54 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Tennessee Volunteers | 52c | 259.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Tennessee Volunteers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tennessee Volunteers | 50c | 197.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Tennessee Volunteers | 51c | 166.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Tennessee Volunteers | 53c | 130.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 51c | 98.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 88.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Tennessee Volunteers | 54c | 79.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 51.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 47c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Tennessee Volunteers | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 61c | 36.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Tennessee Volunteers | 52c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Tennessee Volunteers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5)this page
- Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt CommodoresTennessee Volunteers won
- Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 150.5Under won
- Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 151.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.