CS2 · resolved market
Will "donk" get at least one 2.00+ rating on at least 1 map of the PGL Astana playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ab34b721ec12cbd827fbba776644265d5247320a496d63c3080e4aa5663c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff51…ced1backed Yes | 61c | 32,589$19,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,709.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef2…e986backed No | 39c | 32,589$12,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,709.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…af7fbacked Yes | 78c | 425.05$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 74c | 322.86$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed No | 45c | 280.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 46c | 197.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 76c | 87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…82a3backed Yes | 78c | 76.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 38c | 57.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.