La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9faa90bd89b6620a356ace3090e3534895dd71d0559ff767a10b6afa161ba1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 31c | 8,548$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,924.94 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 4,341$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423.55 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 2,429$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.73 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 1,760$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.93 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 55c | 438.36$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 63c | 404.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 28c | 370.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.69 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 269.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 32c | 123.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 29c | 86.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 19c | 72.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 68c | 62.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 49c | 50.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…900cbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 71c | 17.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad (-1.5)Villarreal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.