La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e50141162ee38bbb1671e3ef26cc857723c1dd0a0db3b4e6cee8247b8e815f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 14,414$8,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,075.78 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 38c | 6,980$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.4 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 3,437$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.33 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 50c | 3,014$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.95 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 46c | 2,390$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 2,227$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.17 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 53c | 2,025$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2839…0efebacked Over | 51c | 1,959$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 46c | 1,204$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.32 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 1,074$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.6 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 928.87$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.74 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 47c | 809.74$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Over | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 50c | 590.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Over | 43c | 465.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 439.5$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 365.26$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Under | 67c | 330.76$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.61 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 52c | 289.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 51c | 278.43$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Over | 46c | 239.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 59c | 198.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…0c7ebacked Under | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 43c | 147.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 48c | 143.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…1bc0backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +598.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 52c | 90.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 50c | 70.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 40c | 59.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 58c | 47.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…bbe6backed Over | 51c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 51c | 29.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…7e39backed Over | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…f4ebbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…41f8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Under | 57c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad (-1.5)Villarreal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.