Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0789e55df66fedfc2b2c32fd130c026a1e33134c20ad5fce943a1914064d07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 1,050$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 7c | 743.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.74 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 540.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 30c | 378.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 30c | 351.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…2899backed Yes | 11c | 234.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 215.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 204.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 72c | 197.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 170$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 79c | 140.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 123.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…3921backed Yes | 15c | 117.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed Yes | 12c | 112.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 76c | 110.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 11c | 107.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…f82abacked Yes | 13c | 91.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 21c | 85.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 29c | 49.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 77c | 24.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.