Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0863a6ac73c4e23df93b6b7a86fe1e8cf469ee444bdf195a96489bea9f43f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 323.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 267.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 71c | 150.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 34c | 145.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 130.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 128.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 124.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 23c | 116.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 115.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 80.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 71.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 65c | 71.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 69.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 69.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 66.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 36c | 55.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 78c | 53.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 47.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 40.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 72c | 39.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 34.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 28.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 78c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 67c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…1ac3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed Yes | 75c | 17.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.