Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa72aa3326d901399ad87c651af6abedbf645d44d0fa621760a04539b54b09a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 2,146$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.26 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 1,653$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.83 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Yellow Submarine | 64c | 1,529$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.88 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 799.1$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.68 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 668.3$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 72c | 518.14$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 390.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 361.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 275.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 219.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Yellow Submarine | 71c | 201.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 194.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 191.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 182.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 165.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 126.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…7c83backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 113.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 109.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 95.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 86.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0bd8backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 84.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 52.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 34.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.