Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa8f92349648af1ab973264b60fd99f4456377fa6d8e6b157aae9a2a16d8486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 230.07$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 27c | 224.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 205.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 73c | 199$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 175.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 31c | 162.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 114.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 95.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 91.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 83.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 76c | 78.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 70.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 64.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 62.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 28c | 56.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 53.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 50.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 49.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 32c | 48.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 46.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 46.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…f4e4backed Yes | 31c | 45.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 79c | 42.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 40.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 76c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 70c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.