Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jesper de Jong vs Jakub Mensik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaddc42b29d568e453d1d631f8e2308399dd03811fb1137823b95bdb3676da34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jongof Jong, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Jong | 32c | 9,039$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,186.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Mensik | 68c | 7,770$5,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,305.95 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Mensik | 66c | 2,500$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mensik | 68c | 1,384$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.3 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jong | 33c | 1,120$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Jong | 33c | 988.2$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.92 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Jong | 32c | 937.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mensik | 64c | 781.76$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.84 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Jong | 21c | 644$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.76 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jong | 41c | 602.23$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.39 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jong | 32c | 575.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.42 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Jong | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Mensik | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mensik | 69c | 446.29$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.09 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Jong | 23c | 350$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Mensik | 67c | 348.4$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Mensik | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Jong | 61c | 211$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Mensik | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Mensik | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Jong | 23c | 138.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mensik | 73c | 137.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Jong | 37c | 135.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Mensik | 76c | 128$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jong | 16c | 127$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Jong | 35c | 114$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Mensik | 70c | 85.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Mensik | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Jong | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Mensik | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…4417backed Mensik | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Mensik | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…08bfbacked Jong | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.