Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Asuncion Men: Rafael Tosetto vs Maxwell Exsted
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaadfecc431372e10a22bc56a4cd58d01c10b6c85637cf6e7ef283da3c454d9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rafael Tosettoof Rafael Tosetto, Maxwell Exsted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rafael Tosetto | 27c | 1,223$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Maxwell Exsted | 73c | 1,032$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.88 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Maxwell Exsted | 14c | 803.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Maxwell Exsted | 8c | 421$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maxwell Exsted | 9c | 274.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Maxwell Exsted | 10c | 185$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Maxwell Exsted | 8c | 169.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maxwell Exsted | 17c | 127.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…d0e6backed Maxwell Exsted | 10c | 121.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Maxwell Exsted | 65c | 80.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Rafael Tosetto | 60c | 61.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Maxwell Exsted | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Maxwell Exsted | 73c | 37.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Rafael Tosetto | 46c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Maxwell Exsted | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maxwell Exsted | 65c | 22.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.