South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaeaf2c7803d7f7fd6fc254f62a708ae8c49bf561688492046fd112d5c90a0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluminense FCof SE Palmeiras, Fluminense FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fluminense FC | 65c | 1,221$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.44 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SE Palmeiras | 35c | 828.79$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed SE Palmeiras | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 312.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Fluminense FC | 26c | 258.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…7a37backed Fluminense FC | 70c | 215$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fluminense FC | 65c | 204.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…4302backed Fluminense FC | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SE Palmeiras | 72c | 45.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…873ebacked Fluminense FC | 70c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Fluminense FC | 36c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Fluminense FC | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Fluminense FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Fluminense FC | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Fluminense FC | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.