South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0e9a00d4ac96a187e0767d0bc52f9f8de64efe14eb316fa121cebcbb7dfb31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 49c | 16,946$8,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,642.39 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 51c | 11,850$6,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,043.51 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 51c | 2,767$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.17 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,936$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 15c | 1,539$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,176$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 53c | 802.34$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.63 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 54c | 757.29$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.54 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 27c | 518.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 40c | 474.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 51c | 308.61$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 261.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 51c | 234.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 167.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 153.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 146.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 50c | 145.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Under | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 53c | 66.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Under | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Under | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…5ad2backed Over | 50c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Under | 51c | 40.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…7018backed Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Under | 51c | 31.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 30.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…b427backed Over | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Over | 47c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.