South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8a916a3e48cd0d8a6c5c02fb8debb3e9e408ae80ee10099a5a06f1e89370e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 56c | 7,800$4,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,367.98 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 7,372$3,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,183.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 68c | 1,313$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.79 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Over | 32c | 1,313$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bd…c88dbacked Over | 71c | 699.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 587.09$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 21c | 449.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 38c | 448.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.84 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 393.94$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 34c | 360.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 278.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Over | 71c | 258.82$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 176$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 46c | 173.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 79c | 157.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 41c | 122.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 21c | 109.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 57c | 96.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 69c | 82.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 40c | 80.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 40c | 67.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 72c | 67.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…8b19backed Under | 34c | 44.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 65c | 33.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…b89abacked Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 46c | 29.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 80c | 27.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…8395backed Over | 80c | 14.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.