NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Bulls

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0078cb9b35a25f0edfade82d6471de4afca9abf523c3ae80d68cc1b4c53f28

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Jazz, Bulls
Resolved: Nov 5, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,370 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ff0…46e3backed Jazz	30c	25,454$7,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,840.58	476	56.5%269 W · 207 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked Bulls	72c	24,729$17,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,750.48	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed Jazz	62c	6,823$4,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,622.66	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb228…2734backed Bulls	45c	5,656$2,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,564.93	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Jazz	56c	5,502$3,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,430.91	656	42.5%279 W · 377 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bulls	2c	1,998$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.86	1,035	1.1%11 W · 1,024 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Bulls	58c	1,947$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,128.37	259	39%101 W · 158 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz	31c	1,687$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,167.31	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Jazz	26c	1,561$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,159.6	461	31%143 W · 318 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b4…e0febacked Jazz	27c	1,389$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,013.89	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Jazz	28c	1,009$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.17	428	27.3%117 W · 311 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Bulls	50c	1,001$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	531	34.7%184 W · 347 L	-11.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Bulls	74c	999.99$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.99	138	57.2%79 W · 59 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Bulls	48c	954.03$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.93	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Jazz	26c	917.52$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$678.97	196	42.9%84 W · 112 L	-10.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls	75c	618.92$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.31	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Bulls	26c	529.18$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.11	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceab…bbfabacked Jazz	27c	500$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…f59bbacked Bulls	73c	499.98$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.99	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-4.2wins	-0.30per pick	52cpaid	-62%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x242f…286ebacked Bulls	73c	444.4$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.41	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	63cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Bulls	57c	440.21$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.92	142	33.1%47 W · 95 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Jazz	64c	425.31$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.31	269	34.9%94 W · 175 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Jazz	25c	312.65$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.49	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Bulls	47c	275.78$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8140…b92fbacked Bulls	67c	260.15$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.13	91	49.5%45 W · 46 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Bulls	54c	225$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.75	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8af…f391backed Jazz	24c	213.14$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.99	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+33%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e4f…446cbacked Bulls	74c	213$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.62	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5063…9826backed Bulls	48c	209.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Bulls	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	184	37.5%69 W · 115 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Jazz	27c	150.42$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.43	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bulls	68c	150$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.7	1,166	54.4%634 W · 532 L	+19.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f77…5ab3backed Bulls	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…4711backed Bulls	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9c…b949backed Jazz	27c	129.02$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+84.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…7603backed Jazz	28c	125$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+142.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b9…3390backed Jazz	25c	124.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.75	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb14…a884backed Bulls	73c	122.26$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.39	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff1…2597backed Bulls	76c	118.42$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Bulls	75c	100$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-5.9wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x72fd…7e92backed Bulls	76c	77.59$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.94	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-4.3wins	-0.43per pick	53cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1bcb…4b4bbacked Bulls	73c	68.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.29	10	70%7 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	73cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1497…aedebacked Bulls	75c	66.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead7…efedbacked Bulls	48c	64.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	145	42.8%62 W · 83 L	-7.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Jazz	50c	60.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.09	117	19.7%23 W · 94 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c81…1a5cbacked Bulls	75c	53.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba19…0f73backed Bulls	72c	47.48$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7439…40d2backed Bulls	40c	45.46$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	248	44%109 W · 139 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f46…b84bbacked Jazz	27c	44.7$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x778a…1a6dbacked Jazz	47c	42.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Bulls	75c	40.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Bulls	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…9721backed Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.2wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x43fd…021fbacked Jazz	73c	30.23$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Jazz	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	127	47.2%60 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18cb…7364backed Bulls	76c	26.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde64…8d2fbacked Jazz	69c	20.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.41	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…6267backed Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b16…9bc6backed Bulls	74c	19.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2fa…3286backed Bulls	74c	15.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Bulls	74c	13.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	109	54.1%59 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Bulls

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market