MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab17e79db987e48a985ceeb280b7a6b96fb4b883edcb44ae367378dbf9a15489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c54…da75backed New York Yankees | 51c | 18,163$9,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,952.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 16,167$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 3,206$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.72 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed New York Yankees | 53c | 2,300$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.02 | 241 | 54.4%131 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,665$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 1,516$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,504$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.17 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 1,407$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.95 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed New York Yankees | 53c | 1,042$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.54 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked New York Yankees | 52c | 966.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.54 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 646.49$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 560.94$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.84 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed New York Yankees | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed New York Yankees | 51c | 299.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed New York Yankees | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed New York Yankees | 53c | 173.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 154.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed New York Yankees | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 104.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed New York Yankees | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…a245backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked New York Yankees | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed New York Yankees | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed New York Yankees | 53c | 41.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked New York Yankees | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Orioles vs. YankeesYankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.