South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab18cc91a9294b98e85ab0a28731cd3c8d6e1658d8400fa3b0b1d1f9deef700a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof Mirassol FC, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 75c | 3,063$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mirassol FC | 32c | 1,397$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.21 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mirassol FC | 23c | 805.45$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Mirassol FC | 37c | 548$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mirassol FC | 26c | 519.84$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 63c | 434.75$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mirassol FC | 27c | 278$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Mirassol FC | 24c | 268$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 70c | 206.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 63c | 204$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 63c | 204$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Mirassol FC | 37c | 133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mirassol FC | 22c | 132.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mirassol FC | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mirassol FC | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Mirassol FC | 36c | 79.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…25e8backed Mirassol FC | 40c | 28.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.