Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab60859e26090c2fb2168e72dbde6011b8f5e9dd918e787aad3300cfca588f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 7c | 346.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.15 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 6c | 327.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.63 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 283.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 6c | 218.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 201.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 6c | 194.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 121.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 109.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 99.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 99.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 78c | 79.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 78.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 70.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 70.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 75c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 73c | 68.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 35c | 67.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 22c | 65.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 32c | 61.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 47c | 58.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 45c | 52.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 51.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 25.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 66c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.