Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab82bb66cef7db2acd024f57ba9d5ba53c10d54ffbc9c312bd1b8cc1ca1a1503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,690 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x326b…4b92backed Up | 13c | 60,178$7,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,849.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Up | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…d17dbacked Down | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…bea5backed Up | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…8692backed Down | 25c | 1,772$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…4127backed Down | 27c | 1,274$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…8686backed Down | 25c | 1,100$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Down | 25c | 900$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fca…7724backed Down | 31c | 750$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed Down | 31c | 750$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…ad7fbacked Down | 31c | 750$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Down | 25c | 700$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…85a0backed Down | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +285.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked Down | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +285.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Down | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 29c | 185.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Down | 21c | 165.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Up | 9c | 121.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Down | 31c | 117$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Down | 23c | 85.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +328.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Up | 44c | 84.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Down | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Up | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.